Monday, April 28, 2008

MLS Scariness: 2008 Week 5

Okay, time for another look at MLS scariness. I’ve settled into the formula I hope to use for the rest of the season (I’m not going to go back and recalculate scariness for the previous weeks, but I am scaling the scores down to match the current range). The formula is as follows:

pts (game) + gd (game) + opp ppg (last 5 games) + 1 (away team)
I figure a weighted average over the last five weeks (or as many
weeks as the teams have played) to come up with the current

Enough about math though, here’s the current table:

Team Scariness Ranking Change
NY 4.9 1 (3) +2
CLB 4.14 2 (2)
DAL 3.76 3 (4) +1
KC 3.75 4 (1) -3
TOR 3.72 5 (8) +3
NE 3.49 6 (7) +1
CHI 3.29 7 (5) -2
DC 2.94 8 (12) +4
LA 2.93 9 (14) +5
COL 2.22 10 (6) -4
HOU 1.98 11 (9) -2
SAN 1.75 12 (11) -1
SLC 0.93 13 (13)
CHV 0.9 14 (10) -4

LA and DC moved way up the charts based on lopsided wins. Toronto also moved up, but I think that’s based more on a three game winning streak (man, BMO is looking like a fortress and a great place to catch a game1.)

Chivas and Colorado were the big sinkers. Chivas isn’t playing very well in general and got clubbed by LA, while the Rapids are settling into what I think i a more realistic ranking after some surprising early wins.

My only other thought is that being an RSL fan kinda stinks … oh well, I guess I can always get my kicks watching the ‘Fire Kreis’ folks get wound up.

1 I’ve gotta say, I really envy a young friend who just got called on an LDS mission to Toronto—he was on BYU’s reserve list last year and is going to love being in a soccer hungry area.

1 comment:

Tom said...

Interesting stats!