Well, I got an 0-fer on my last set of picks, which is so depressing I won’t even bother to go over them (though, RSL did pull out a tie that I’m pretty happy about). Instead, I thought I’d spend some extra time on my scariness ratings. This time I present the older style along with a new (improved?) version.
|DC United||2.2||1 (+1)|
|Kansas City||2.06||2 (+2)|
|New England||1.86||5 (0)|
|New York||1.42||7 (-4)|
|Los Angeles||0.92||11 (-1)|
|Salt Lake||0.8||12 (-1)|
|Team||Adj Scariness||Rating||Diff from Scariness Rating|
- For each game, I add up the team’s points from a game, the opponents PPG average for the last five games, and add a bonus point for playing on the road, then divide by two to create a value for the game.
- I add the goal differential to the value for each game, to create a modified value.
- Finally, I take a weighted average of the last five modified values (using weightings of .5, .7, .9, 1.1, and 1.3).
This takes a little bit longer, but gives a clearer picture (I think). There are still some surprises there (how did Chivas and RSL climb so high?), but I think I’m getting closer. I’m still looking for feedback, so please let me know what you think. (Oh, this is getting hairy enough that I don’t expect to do it for any other leauges.)