Week 10 Scariness Ratings

I did fairly well on last week's pick, and I considered my adjusted scariness numbers¹ in making them, so I’m feeling better about them.

Adjusted Scariness

Team	Adj Scariness	Rating (Last Week)
DC United	3.11	1 (3)
Chivas	2.85	2 (4)
Kansas City	2.74	3 (1)
Houston	2.73	4 (6)
New York	1.86	5 (2)
Dallas	1.78	6 (12)
New England	1.61	7 (7)
Salt Lake	1.46	8 (9)
Toronto	1.18	9 (5)
Colorado	1.01	10 (7)
Chicago	0.62	11 (11)
Los Angeles	0.39	12 (10)
Columbus	- 0.25	13 (13)

One thing that I’m getting used to is that there’s a lot of movement on these charts each week. I’m still a bit puzzled by some of the numbers (why in the world is Chivas rated number two??) but overall, I think I’m coming to peace with things.

¹ The Adjusted Scariness probably deserves a bit of explanation:

• For each game, I add up the team’s points from a game, the opponents PPG average for the last five games, and add a bonus point for playing on the road, then divide by two to create a value for the game.
• I add the goal differential to the value for each game, to create a modified value.
• Finally, I take a weighted average of the last five modified values (using weightings of .5, .7, .9, 1.1, and 1.3).